Why Experts Predict Mortgage Rates Will Fall in 2026 — And Why St. George Buyers Shouldn’t Wait

If you’re considering buying a home in St. George, you’ve probably heard the chatter: “Wait until mortgage rates drop.” While the forecasts do point toward a decline next year, there’s more to the story. Let’s walk through what analysts are expecting—and why buying now might still be a smart move.

Why Experts Believe Rates Will Ease

There are two major reasons why mortgage rates are expected to come down in the next 12-18 months:

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is forecast to drop. Historically, 30-year fixed mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year Treasury yield. A lower yield tends to pull mortgage rates downward. 
• The “spread” between mortgage rates and the Treasury yield is narrowing.

The combination of a falling Treasury yield plus a shrinking spread means mortgage rates might gradually drift from today’s levels toward the upper 5-percent range by late next year if the economy cooperates.

So Why Not Just Wait for Lower Rates?

Erika Rogers, St. George real estate expert, offers her perspective: "It might seem logical: 'If rates will drop, why buy now?' For some buyers, it will make the most sense, financially and strategically, to wait for next year. However, we know that some buyers might end up regretting the wait."

Here are the key reasons why waiting isn’t always the best strategy—especially in a market like St. George:

• Home prices will rise when rates drop.
• Competition will increase.
• You’ll build equity while you wait.
• Refinancing is an option.

What This Means for St. George Homebuyers

Instead of focusing on how to get the lowest possible rate, think about how you can buy St. George real estate you can afford as soon as possible. Experts agree that "time in the market is more important than timing the market."

So what can you do to be ready to make confident and competitive offers right now?

• Get pre-approved now so you understand your budget and can move quickly.
• Work with a local lender to model scenarios: what your payment would be now and after a refinance when rates drop.
• Focus on homes with strong fundamentals (location, condition, access to amenities) because value appreciation matters regardless of rate movement.
• If you find a home that meets your goals and budget now—consider the “buy now, refinance later” strategy rather than waiting for the perfect rate.

Yes, experts expect mortgage rates to fall toward 2026—but buying only when rates reach that exact bottom means you could be paying more for the home itself or facing stiffer competition. In a market like St. George, where population growth and lifestyle appeal are so strong, buying now and planning to refinance later may offer a smarter balance: secure your place today, begin building equity, and take advantage of better rates when they arrive.

Ready to explore your buying strategy in St. George? We're here to help. Contact us any time to get started.